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Talk about recession is rising. For us at Absolute Strategy, however, it’s more than just talk—it’s now our central economic forecast for 2020. Given this, our investment advice is very straightforward: Be as risk-averse with your $10,000 as you can.

The reason is simple. In the 10 U.S. recessions seen since 1950, U.S. equities typically lost 20% from their pre-recession peak (six to nine months before the official start of recession) to their trough, which tends to only come deep into the recession, and only after the Fed has cut rates aggressively (usually about 400 basis points). These recession-driven equity bear markets typically see profits fall 15% and price-earnings multiples fall 5 points.